Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Mock Draft as of 1-6-13
Happy New Year everyone!
This draft only includes trades that have already occured (Cin-Oak, and picks which have been rescinded such as from Bountygate or the supplemental draft.)
The potential trades which I have included are ones that benefit the PHI Eagles that could happen based on trading partners needs as well.

BREAKING NEWS: That hasn't yet been reflected in this mock.
-Chip Kelly is the new HC of the PHI Eagles
-Manti Te'o got caught with a fake-girlfriend hoax.

1.KC Chiefs-Luke Joekel-LT Texas A&M
-Andy Reid as HC tells me that he'll start his personal rebuild from the inside out with either his defense or offensive lines. He has also stated that he wants to find the next Len Dawson in this year's class.
-Joekel is one of those once in a lifetime LT prospects; the best since Jake Long or possibly even later back. He has the elite first step and balance that is required of an NFL LT along with the lateral agility to mirror rushers. The one thing that worries me about him is the “elite talent” that he is perceived to have faced in Sam Montgomery and Corey Lemonier. While both were productive rushers, their appeal to the NFL and to Joekel Scouts comes from upside; they both had beyond sub-par seasons and played nowhere near their best football.

2.JAX Jaguars-Star Lotulelei-DT Utah
-As much as I want to mock Geno Smith at this pick; Khan's admiration with Tim Tebow tells me that he'll get a shot at the starting job along with the dynamic duo of....Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert...
-Star is a size and speed mismatch for C and OG at the collegiate level and will continue to do so at the next level. He has the strength to commend a double team every single down unless the offense wants to roll the dice on a play getting blown up. My one worry about Star is that he lacks the lateral agility of someone like Vince Wilfork; he gets straight line penetration and that’s about it.

3.OAK Raiders-Damontre Moore-OLB Texas A&M
-OAK's 12 year old HC might find Moore's explosion off the line something truly appealing. While Moore isn't the A&M product that Von Miller was to DEN; he will still be an every down LB at the next level. Moore has a unique blend of explosion and power when it comes to rushing the passer.
-Hopefully the inclusion of Moore into this lineup will give Richard Seymour some of his spark and enthusiasm back; along with hopefully getting rid of Tommy Kelly.

4.PHI Eagles----TRADE---->NY Jets-Geno Smith QB WVU
-NYJ swap 1st rd picks with the Eagles in addition to giving them their 2nd rd pick.
-The NYJ skip teams like BUFF and ARI in order to get (arguably) the best signal caller in this year's draft.
-I know that some people will think that Mark Sanchez being owed so much money will give him the starting job; but assuming the Jets can't trade him away, he'll be relegated to 2nd string until his contract runs out.

5.DET Lions-Bjoern Werner-DE FSU
-Kyle VB is getting to the tail end of his career and someone new across from Cliff Avril is needed. Warner could be the most complete defensive player in this year's draft; his upside might not be as high as others but he poses a very low risk investment, even at the top 5.
-The combination of Warner, Avril, Suh, and Fairley between bail hearings is an idea that should put fear into the hearts of NFCN Ocs for years to come.

6.CLE Browns-Sheldon Richardson-DT Mizzou
-CLE; while needing an edge rusher to compliment Jabal Sheard, should take the ultra-explosive DT Richardson; I've seen various sites give Richardson a comparison to a Fletcher Cox/JJ Watt hybrid; whether or not Richardson gets to this level is yet to be seen but he can be a great addition to CLEs line.

7.ARI Cardinals-Chance Warmack-OG Bama
-Larry Fitzgerald should be somewhat subdued with this pick; Warmack will immediately start on the league's worst offensive line and should give the trio of Qbs in ARI some time to get their best player the ball.
-In addition to helping in the passing game; Warmack will do well to open up running lanes whether on straight line power runs or by pulling around, either way; Warmack is a once in a decade OG prospect; possibly the best since Steve Hutchinson; this puts him into the top10.

8.BUFF Bills-Ryan Nassib-QB 'Cuse
-New HC Doug Marrone will take his protege QB along with him to BUFF. While I've heard people telling Marrone to wait until the 2nd round but with teams like KC and JAX picking before them, its unlikely that he'll be there even at the top of 2.
-Nassib (in my opinion) is the best QB in this draft with the best upside, even more so than Geno Smith.

9.NYJ Jets---TRADE--->PHI Eagles-Eric Fisher-OT W Michigan
-While I do believe that this is quite high for someone like Eric Fisher, I believe that his upside warrants this selection. Granted, this is based on his performance at the Senior Bowl; where he's likely to face better competition than he has up until now in his collegiate career.
-Fisher is arguably the best athlete at OT in this draft, possibly besides the former TE turned LT from Ohio State (Can't remember name for life of me.). He is an excellent pass blocker but needs some technique refinement in his run blocking; where due to his height and arm length can lead to being out-leveraged, but this is something that can be fixed with the proper OL Coach; ahem; Howard Mudd.

10.TENN Titans-Dee Milliner-CB Bama
-Milliner isn't the pure athlete that Morris Clairborne or Patrick Peterson have been in recent years; but he comes out as a better prospect than Dre Kirpatrick last season. He fits the mold of bigger CBS to come out of Nick Saban's program. He'll give the Titans an immediate boost on the back end and should help Michael Griffin look better.

11.SD Chargers-Johnathon Banks-CB Miss St
-Poor Philip Rivers; his new HC misses out on all of the top OL talent, thus there's a good chance that he'll be running around for his life again.
-On a lighter note; Banks will get to learn from accomplished veteran Quinton Jammer, who cannot have too many years left. This fixes a major issue that SD has, along with potentially being the best combination of need:available talent.

12.MIA Dolphins-Jarvis Jones-OLB Georgia
-Cameron Wake is jumping up and down with this pick; since teams can no longer triple team him each drop back.
-Jones has top3 talent but due to his spinal injury history he'll slide down the draft boards to the early teens. Jones has an elite first step and amazing quickness of the edge; he's very reminiscent of Aldon Smith coming out of Mizzou. He has to learn how to play the run better and could bulk up if he's going to take on some bigger Ts in this league. Jones has underrated zone coverage ability and will prove to be scheme diverse in this defense.

13.TB Buccaneers-Kenny Vaccaro-S Texas
-Declaring who the top S in this class is difficult since all excel in certain aspects of the game. Kenny Vaccaro may be the only one really worth a 1st rd pick; he excels in Man Coverage in the slot and against TE. Vaccaro will need to prove his worth playing deep zone; since that is where he'll probably play in Greg Schiano's scheme.

14.CAR Panthers-Johnathon Hankins-DT Ohio St.
-CAR needs help desperately at the DT position. No matter what their coaching staff says; teams are able to run the ball up the middle and get their big OL on CAR small LB corp.
-Personally, I'm not a huge fan of Hankins for two reasons; being a Penn State alum (just stating there is bias) the other one is that at this point in his development; he looks like a 2 down player at best. Could this change; sure, but at this point Hankins looks like he'll be taken off the field on 3rd downs.

15.NO Saints-Shariff Floyd-DT Florida
-Hankins gets taken off the board one pick before the Saints were scheduled to grab him. Shariff Floyd is quite the consolation prize; he has played his way into the middle of the first round with his performance against Louisville in Florida's bowl game.
-Even in a losing effort; Floyd was constantly disruptive along the middle. The fact that he has experience playing the DE (even though he's less effective) means that he'll be a versatile player for the Saints.

16.STL Rams-Manti Te'o-LB ND
-I was considering slotting a safety such as Eric Reid as this position; but the perceived value of Te'o this far down in the 1st rd is too good to pass by. Slotting him at the SAM position immediately improves STL defense. My biggest question for Te'o is his 40 time; I'm guessing that he'll run somewhere between 4.6-4.7; this is somewhat slow for someone to have to cover the new-age TE in this league; comparing the previous ILB drafted, Patrick Willis who ran a time in the 4.4 range.

17.PITT Steelers-Ezekiel Ansah-OLB BYU
-James Harrison's career is in its twilight years; Ezekiel brings a student for him to mentor; assuming he learns how to teach and occasionally smile.
-Ansah is one of several hyper raw:athletic freak combinations in this year's draft; having only played football for 2 years. His athleticism immediately shows up on tape; between his ability to play virtually any position in the front7 of a 34 scheme. While there are some downsides to being so raw; the one that teams will attack the most as a young player is Ansah's aggression; draw plays and screens will be the norm to his side of the field.

18.DAL Cowboys-John Jenkins-NT Georgia
-Drafting the mammoth Jenkins gives DAL the option of sliding Jay Ratliff over to DE which is something that the Cowboys have been trying to do for some time.

19.NYG-Kevin Minter-ILB LSU
-The NYG LB is a mess; they need a top flight ILB to run their defense.

20.CHI Bears-Alec Ogletree-ILB Georgia
-.Brian Urlacher's health is rapidly deteriorating and CHI needs a new captain for their defense.

21.MINN Vikings-Cordarelle Patterson-WR Tenn
-As we all witnessed in MINN loss against GB; they need help besides Percy Harvin and All Day. Even for a QB like Joe Webb; having a big bodied receiver who can make a play on the ball is vital; furthermore a QB like Christian Ponder needs a true Flanker/Z receiver to make plays for him; having a true wide out will take safety pressure off of Zach Rudolph and give him even more room for making plays.

22.CIN Bengals-Dallas Thomas-OT/G Tennessee
-CIN needs help with their OL. Dallas Thomas has the potential to be a special player in this league if he gets a season or two in an NFL strength and conditioning program.

23.WASH Redskins-Justin Hunter-WR Tennessee
-WASH finds a true #1 Flanker for their young QB. Hunter's draft stock will be determined by two things at the combine along with whichever all-star game he participates in. His combine numbers in the 40 and vertical jump; assuming he's regained his explosiveness will cement him as the #1 WR taken.

24.INDY Colts-Jesse Williams-NT Bama
-If the Colts want to seriously be a 34 team, they need a NT. Williams doesn't have the outright size of John Jenkins but has surprising lateral agility for a man his size.

25.GB Packers-Dion Jordan-OLB Oregon
-This pick will be between Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo; I believe Dom Kapers will fall in love with whichever athletic freak has a bigger combine performance. At this point I believe that it will be Dion Jordan; who's athleticism allows Kapers to use him in creative ways at various LB/DE positions depending on the down and distance.

26.DEN Broncos-Johnathon Cooper-OG UNC
-Another G being drafted in the first round. Cooper could be the best natural athlete at the position with his elite bending abilities. He may lack some strength in order to be successful in a power man running scheme but should thrive in a hybrid or strictly zone scheme. Cooper will help keep Willis McGahee going for a few more years in addition to Knowshon Moreno.

27.SEA Seahawks-Tayvon Austin-WR WVU
-Well my Seahawks Super Bowl prediction went out the window along with Pete Carrol's intelligent Icing the kicker call...
-Austin will give the Seahawks another scary dimension to their power running offense led by Beast Mode. Assuming that the Patriots will win the SB; their offense will run its pivotal moments through their all-pro WR Wes Welker; while Austin may never reach the success that Wes has, he has the quick lateral burst to be a mismatch all over the field, but especially in the slot; giving him a two way go against corners; his sure hands will help move the chains for Russell Wilson for years to come.
28. HOU Texans-Keenan Allen-WR CAL
-Keenan Allen comes off the board and gives Matt Schaub another weapon to work with. Andre Johnson will teach his aggressive YAC tactics to the young WR who has the same mentality once the ball is in his hands.

29.ATL Falcons-Alex Okafor-DE Texas
-Ray Edwards made out like a bandit in FA this past offseason. He hasn't produced this year and John Abraham is getting to the end of his career; he was drafted in 2000 and isn't getting any younger. Okafor is in the mold of John Abraham; a power rusher with adaquate speed and a solid build against the run.

30.BAL Ravens-Arthur Brown-ILB Kansas State
-Ozzie Newsome makes the biggest gamble in the draft this year with making sure that Brown is on the board when BAL is on the clock. Brown; the brother of PHI RB Bryce Brown was originally a recruit at the U but transferred to K State. He has the potential to be the best ILB out of this year's draft class, a mixture of his experience, tenacity, and amazing athleticism will make him an All-Pro in the NFL.

31..SF 49ers-Matt Elam-S Florida
-Dashon Golson may not be back next year due to his franchise tag this past year. He hasn't played up too par and neither has Donte Whittner. Bringing in Elam brings some competition for the two veterans and is in the same mold as Reid from LSU; a bigger S who can play against the run; but also plagued with the same issues that show up on Matt Reid's tape; bad angles in run and pass coverage leading to breakdowns in coverage.

32.NE Patriots-Margus Hunt-Hybrid SMU
-This pick is assuming that Bill doesn't trade out 18 times in order to amass picks. Although Margus Hunt sounds a lot like a player that Belicheck would love; can and will play special teams and make a difference; monster on the defensive line; regardless of which hybrid lineup the Patriots are using that week. While raw; Hunt's upside will warrant this pick; he has only played football for two years; and only one where he's been starting or even being shuffled along the line, he still has a ways to go; but you can't teach speed, wingspan, or power to someone who's already 6'8” 280....You just can't.


33.JAX Jaguars-Taylor Wilson-QB Arkansas
-JAX is a mess; no matter how much their owner loves Tim Tebow; jersey sales don't equate to victories in the NFL, as far as I've been told at least.
-Wilson is a prototypical Southern gunslinger; he isn't afraid to fit the ball into small windows and has a strong enough arm to match his moxie. Wilson is mobile enough to slide around the pocket, but not much else.

34.KC Chiefs-David Amerson-CB NC State
-I was considering slotting Sam Montgomery here until the Locker Room photo leak which occurred recently.
-David Amerson may have to make the switch to S at the next level depending on how flexible his hips are at the combine; KC should hope that Amerson doesn't have the same issue many bigger corners have in stiff hips. On a positive note; Amerson has tremendous upside with amazing ball skills but has to learn to play more disciplined football, he was torched for quite a few TD this past season; all of which occurred on double moves.

35.PHI Eagles-Jordan Poyer-CB Oregon St
-Poyer is undersized but makes up for this with his tremendous athleticism. I was considering slotting Xavier Rhodes at this slot; but I believe his draft stock will be purely determined on his combine and all-star game performance; Rhodes has the potential to have stiff hips, which would hurt his overall stock at the next level.

36.DET Lions-Barrett Jones-OL Bama
-Matt Stafford needs more protection; thats all that needs to be said. If his OL can't open up running lanes then it wouldn't matter if he had Jerry Rice across from Megatron; the team would still finish 8-8.

37.OAK--->TRADE---->CIN Bengals-Eddie Lacy-RB 'Bama
-CIN needs a big play back alongside The LawFirm; Eddie Lacy's performance in the National Championship has catapulted him into the high 2nd round. A combination of power (6-0 240), speed, and great lateral moves with that spin move make Lacy an intriguing prospect in CIN power running game. The biggest factor in Lacy being drafted this high is that due to him playing in a split back offense means that he hasn't taken too much damage physically through college.

38.ARI Cardinals- DJ Fluker-OT 'Bama
-ARI double dips at OL in the first two rounds; Fluker may not be a LT during his rookie year but he'll be able to take some pressure off whichever healthy QB ARI has at the time by opening up additional running lanes for his RB corps.


40.NYJ Jets--->TRADE---->PHI Eagles- Eric Reid-S LSU
-The Eagles need 2 new safeties this season; thats all that needs to be said about it. Reid flies around the field looking for receivers to pop; this is one of his major issues, he tends to take a lot of penalties. The other issue with Eric Reid is that his raw angle taking leads to big plays in the passing game and losing the edge against the run.
-I'm almost tempted with slotting Baccari Rambo with this pick, but I have a hunch that he'll still be available in the early 3rd round.

41.TENN Titans- Zach Ertz-TE Stanford
-Jake Locker needs a dependable receiving TE as a safety blanket during his developing years in the NFL. While, Tyler Eifert maybe a better overall prospect; Ertz is the best receiving TE in this year's class.
42.BUFF Bills- DeAndre Hopkins-WR Clemson
-Yes, the Clemson WR who isn't Sammy Watkins.
-Hopkins isn't the quick twitch WR that Watkins is, but he has good route running, great hands, and the ability to build up his speed over the duration of his route.
-In addition, Hopkins will give Ryan Nassib another weapon besides Stevie Johnson, who will benefit from defenses not being able to game plan just for him.

43.MIA Dolphins- Brennan Williams-OT UNC
-MIA maybe looking for a Jake Long replacement should he decide to leave the team via F/A, assuming another LT needy team makes him an offer he can't refuse, or simply gives him a decent shot of seeing the postseason again.

45.TB Buccaneers-Sam Montgomery-DE LSU
-I'm not a fan of Montgomery going anywhere near the top100; based on some reports about his work ethic and self-centered nature. On the other hand; he has a high ceiling and in taking LaQuon Bowers pretty high several drafts ago and he had major red flags about his knees. Assuming Coach Schiano can get through to Montgomery; TB could have a dominant line when healthy.

46.CAR Panthers-Lane Johnson-OT Oklahoma
-Like many teams that originally picked in the top10; the announcement of OL Lewan and Matthews returning to school really changed team's draft strategies. Lane Johnson may not be a prototypical NFL LT but he should be able to sure up the RT position as he learns his trade.


48.STL Rams-Phillip Thomas-S Fresno State
-I was trying to find another real hole in the STL roster; they have enough young offensive playmakers that just need seasoning over time. Thomas has the potential to be the first S taken off the board based purely on talent; but due to playing at a small school his stock takes a hit.
-Thomas will be able to play Center-field in the STL defense thus providing cover for the ballhawking Janoris Jenkins at CB.

49.SD Chargers-Oday Aboushi-OT Virginia
-This selection is mainly for the re-progression of Phil Rivers; he needs protection if he wants to get back to the semi-elite level he was at a few seasons ago.

50.PITT Steelers-Khaseem Greene-LB Rutgers
-The Steelers double dipping at LB makes sense based on the value they place on the position; whereas OL and CB would make sense...At the 6th Rd. While Greene may not possess prototypical size for a 34 LB regardless of exact position, he can be described as a natural playmaker, he's always around the ball and always making plays for the defense.

51.DAL Cowboys-Tyler Bray-QB Tenn
-I was torn between Bray and Mike Glannon with this pick but I ended up going with Bray who I think is more NFL ready at the moment along with less negative to his game, Tony Romo has shown time and time again that come playoff time; and frankly any situation where “being clutch” is needed; he isn't the one to lead this team.

52.NYG-Xavier Rhodes-CB FSU
-The Giants secondary can't stay healthy; this isn't really a pick based on current talent as much as adding necessary depth if this team wants to do anything next season. Rhodes has gone down from a top15 pick at the start of the season; he's big and strong enough to get a good jam on the smaller NFCE receivers.

53.CHI Bears-Jake Long-OL Oregon
-The waah! From Jay Cutler will finally stop with the addition of an OL; granted it still won't keep him healthy for an entire season, CHI needs more than just one OL in order solve their problems.

54.WASH Redskins-Chris Faulk-OT LSU
-Faulk was considered a 1st round selection before his ACL injury; he presents great value at the middle of the 2nd round, considering that Trent Williams has taken 5 years to finally play like a top5 pick.

55.MINN Vikings- Bennie Logan-DT LSU
-Logan hasn't even began to touch his vast potential as an interior pass-rusher. He'll get his chance with the remnants of the Williams Wall still taking up blockers on the line.

56.CIN Bengals- Stedman Bailey-WR WVU
-Bailey gives Andy Dalton an additional weapon to gain rapport with. While AJ Green will always be his first read; having another dependable underneath receiver never hurts.

57.INDY--->TRADE--->MIA Dolphins- Logan Ryan-CB Rutgers
-MIA needs help at CB; while another offensive weapon maybe a bigger need; MIA should be able to find someone like Marcus Davis in the later rounds; a big target with good hands.
-Ryan will be an immediate starter in the NFL and the only reason he fell to the 2nd round is that he plays for Rutgers.

58.SEA Seahawks-Sylvester Williams-DT UNC
-SEA needs help with their interior pass rush and Williams is next in a recent line of special athletes at various defensive positions to come out of UNC.

59.GB Packers- DJ Swearinger-S South Carolina
-Swearinger is one of the most versatile prospects in this year's class; he's good in press coverage in the slot or against TE. In addition he's comfortable playing center-field as a FS.

60.HOU Texans- Malliciah Goodman-DE Clemson
-Goodman looks like a versatile 34 DL in the works. With some technique work he could be a Ty Warren type of DL. Houston would get another great weapon to team up with JJ Watt.

61.ATL Falcons-Giovanni Bernard-RB UNC
-ATL needs another RB since there's a very good chance that Michael Turner won't be back next season. Bernard gets to be the next RB with the “poor man's Chris Johnson” moniker. He doesn't have the best repeated cuts but has tremendous breakaway speed.

62.BAL Ravens- Tharold Simon-CB LSU
-Another pick which is meant to offset injury issues for BAL. Jimmy Smith hasn't seen the field much since he's been drafted and he still needs refinement until he gets put on the field and becomes an immediate target.

63.SF 49ers- Datone Jones-OLB UCLA
-While Anthony Farr was getting more national attention; Datone is the better pro-prospect. He is one of at least 50 hybrid 34 players who should be drafted in the top 300.

64.NE Patriots- John Simon-DE/OLB Ohio State
-Simon is the ultimate Belichek player; he should be able to play at least 4-5 different defensive positions in addition to being a good special teams guy.